Gas Price History

Hook | Questions | Procedures | Data Investigation | Analysis | Findings | New Questions

Student Page

Vasquez, Manolito
Davidson, Melenee

mmvasquez3@cs.com
mdavidso@mail.sandi.net

Hook

The student page contains the hook only. It is intended to spark interest in the topic and lead students to ask questions or make predictions.

With the ongoing turmoil in the world, specifically in the Middle East, we are being exposed to how the world situation is affecting our daily lives. One area of our lives that is being affected is the fluctuation of gas prices. Many people just blindly state that a war in the Middle East increases the price of gasoline. It takes an inquiring mind to take it one step further and explain if and how it is affecting prices. Is there some type of relationship or explanation of how gasoline prices are affected by issues in the world or is gasoline no different than other commodities?

Questions

Students might ask similar but different questions than those listed here. The more students are guided to ask specific questions, the less inquiry-oriented the activity.

As a teacher you usually have specific topics that you need to teach, so there are probably going to be boundaries around the types of questions you want your students to ask. These questions will drive the inquiry. List here the main question(s) that you will lead your students to ask.

There might be a list of sub-questions that will be asked as well.

1. What are the mean, median, & mode of gasoline prices  for a  fixed amount of time (ex. 10, 20, 30 years)?  
2. Are the same trends found for the different grades of gasoline?
   

Procedures

After students have asked questions related to the topic, they will need to decide a number of things, including:

• Type(s) of data needed to answer the questions
• Defining important terms
• Choosing tools for data manipulation
• Defining how data will be manipulated and presented

Type(s) of Data

• Gasoline prices for consecutive amounts of time.
• Influence on gasoline prices due to significant events (ex. war, economy...)

Defining Important Terms

Defining Trend Line:  a graphical representation of a statistical trend or pattern.  For example, if time spent studying increases, grades will also increase. Therefore, the slope will be positive.

Investigation Tool(s)

Students will be using numerical data, spreadsheets, Excel tools, and mathematical thought processs. They will be able to use these items to calculate trend lines & their corresponding equations.

Manipulating Data

Data will be placed in a spreadsheet so that students will be able to manipulate it for their exploration. Students can use tools in Excel to make graphs, find trend lines, equations for the trend lines, etc. Students can use all these tools to analyze the data.

Data Investigation

There is often a giant leap from defining the type(s) of data desired and actually finding the data. Providing guidance to students in finding the necessary data may be necessary.

Here are the links to find gasoline prices for the years1979 to present:

• http://www.ghg.net/stuart/gasprice/gasprice.html

Analysis

Raw data/information usually has to be manipulated before it can answer any questions. Students might be unaware of how data can best be manipulated, so teacher guidance may be appropriate.

2. Eliminate data we do not need

3. Use graphing tools of Excel draw a graph representing the prices from 1979 to 2003



4. Use Excel tools to enter trend line & find formula for trend line of graph

5. To get a more recent representation graph data from 1989-2003


6. Once again use tools to enter trend lie & find equation


7. To analyze what effect the first gulf war had on the price draw graph representing data from 1990-1991


8. Draw graph representing when the prices were rising, because of the first war:


9. Use Excel tools to enter trend line & find formula for trend line of graph


10. Draw graph representing when the prices were decreasing, after the war


11. Use Excel tools to enter trend line & find formula for trend line of graph


12. To analyze more recent dates and effects of the current war graph data from 2002 to the present


13. Draw graph representing the increasing prices due to the current war


14. Use Excel tools to enter trend line & find formula for trend line of graph


15. Draw graph representing the decreasing trend due to the current state of the war

Findings

No result is meaningful unless communicated appropriately. Discussion of findings should be supported. There may or may not be definitive answers to the questions students raised.

1. How much have the gas prices changed?  How fast are they increasing?
   From 1979-2003 we see that gas prices approximately increased according to the following equations:
   
   Linear: y = 0.0003x + 1.1294
   Polynomial: y = 9E-09x3 - 1E-05x2 + 0.0047x + 0.8119
   
   where x represents days (based on graph #4 and trend line equation).
   
   From 1989-2003 we see that gas prices approximately increased according to the following equations:
   
   Linear: y = 9E-05x - 1.8109
   Polynomial: y = 1E-11x3 - 1E-06x2 + 0.047x - 542.85
   
   where x represents days (based on graph #6 and trend line equation).
   
2. How were the gas prices affected during the first gulf war?
   Looking at a couple of months when prices were increasing during the 1st war we see that gas prices were increasing approximately at the rate of 0.39 of a cent each day (based on graph #9 and trend line equation).
   
   Looking at a couple of months after the peak of the prices during the 1st war we see that gas prices were decreasing approximately at a rate of 0.42 cents a day (based on graph #11 and trend line equation).
   
3. Based on the post effects of the first gulf war on gas prices, can you predict what will happen after this current war?
   
   Looking at the data during the 1st war it was apparent that the gas prices decreased at a faster rate than the rate at which it increased during the war. I assume the same trend will be seen during the current war.
   
   Looking at a couple of months when prices were increasing during the current war we see that gas prices were increasing approximately at the rate of 0.28 of a cent each day (based on graph #14 and trend line equation). So I assume that the rate at which it will decrease after it has reached its peak will be greater than 0.28 of a cent each day.
   
   We can already see that trend in very limited data that we have recorded. Looking at graph #18, covering a two-day time frame gas prices approximately dropped at a rate of 6.5 cents each day, which is greater than the 0.28 of a cent it was increasing per day.
   
   Looking at a few more days we still see it is decreasing at a faster rate than it was increasing. Looking at graph #16 prices are approximately decreasing at a rate of 1.7 cents a day (Linear trend line). Or an even better approximation of the decrease in prices is reflected in graph #16 (Polynomial trendline), where the equation:
   
    y = -0.0018x^3 + 200.39x^2 - 8E+06x + 1E+11
   
   Represents the trend of the graph, which still is decreasing at a faster rate than the 0.28 of a cent per day rate at which gas prices were increasing before they peaked during our current war.
   
4. Outside of the war can you identify any other trends related with gas prices?
   
   I notice that even though the gas prices seem to fluctuate between highs and lows due to different influences, in the overall picture it does seem to be increasing with time. I think that is a direct positive relationship to inflation. Other factors that may affect the gas prices are economy, supply, world issues (war), etc. There are many factors that have an influence on the gas prices.
   
5. Based on your findings, what will happen to gas prices in the next 10, 20 and 30 years from now?
   They will continue to fluctuate with highs and lows, but overall they will be following an increasing pattern. To predict the possible prices in 10, 20, or 30 years we can use either one of the two sets of equations listed in the first question to approximate a price. I think it would be easier to se the linear equations!

Possible New Questions

Answers often lead to new questions, starting the inquiry cycle over again.

List here follow up questions students might have and wish to investigate at a later time.

• The data above represented gas prices in Texas, do you think gas prices in other parts of the nation will follow the same trends reflected above?
• The data above represented gas prices in an U,S, city, what possible trends do you think will be represented in different parts of the world?
• Based on the trends above, how will it influence your budget?
• Etc.