WIP Analysis and Findings

Many websites contain information on the population of the United States from 1790-2002. 1790 is the date of the first United States census and it marks the first time detailed information on our population was gathered. Two sites with population information for the United States are the following:

http://www.wnjpin.state.nj.us/OneStopCareerCenter/LaborMarketInformation/lmi01/poptrd1.htm

http://www.teachervision.fen.com/ipa/A0772762.html

We converted this information from these sites to an Excel file that contains the population of the United States from 1790- 2002 because our data needs to be easy to manipulate. There are many extension questions that we would like our students to explore after they answer the one big question. Having the data in an Excel file allows the students to analyze the data in a number of ways.

We are asking student to predict future population growth based on past population growth. Excel has the capability to fit the population data. From the fit equation the students can make predictions about future populations

Below is the US population data, graph and 2^nd order polynomial fit line.

Year US Population (thousands) 2000 281421 1990 248710 1980 226542 1970 203302 1960 179,323 1950 151,326 1940 132,165 1930 123,203 1920 106,022 1910 92,228 1900 76,212 1890 62,980 1880 50,189 1870 38,558 1860 31,443 1850 23,191 1840 17,069 1830 12,866 1820 9,638 1810 7,240 1800 5,308 1790 3,929

Steps to Analysis

1. Students input or cuts and pastes data into Excel file
2. Students can highlight data with the date being the independent (x) variable and population being the dependent variable (y).
3. One a line graph is created right click on the line

a) Select add a trend-line

4. Let student explore what type of trend line fits the data better using the TYPE tab.
5. We found that an order 2 polynomial fits the data well
6. Under options click the Display equation on chart box
7. If they fit with a 2^nd order polynomial this should give the student the equation y = 6.681055E+00x2 - 2.403235E+04x + 2.161724E+07
8. Students can put this equation into another spreadsheet ensuring that the x variable is the years cell and not just a number. This way students can put in years and see the predicted population.
9. This will give predicted population growth

b) This data is given below with future years inputted

Year	Total United States Population (thousands)
2010	304346.8055
2020	333269.822
2030	363529.0495
2040	395124.488
2050	428056.1375
3000	9649685

10. The students will then determine how the rate of oil consumption per person in the US has varied over the last 30 years. This information can be determined using the information from the British Petroleum Website at

British Petroleum (Large Excel Data File Available)

http://www.bp.com/home.do see

http://www.bp.com/subsection.do?categoryId=95&contentId=2006480

http://www.bp.com/subsection.do?categoryId=10104&contentId=2015020

Year	Total United States (thousands)	Predicted Population fit to 2nd Order Polynomial in Thousands	Oil Consumption in US (Barrels per day) in Thousands	Barrels per year per person)
2000	281421	276760	19701	14.05
1990	248710	250509.4055	16988	14.75
1980	226542	225595.022	17062	13.22
1970	203302	202016.8495	14710	13.73

This table shows that the amount of oil use per person has not changed much in the last thirty years. If we round the estimate to 15 barrels of oil per person and assume that this number will be constant for the near future we can estimate future oil consumption rates based on our predicted population growth.

11. Thus to tell what we use per year use the equation:

a). Oil consumed in Year XXXX = (Pop Year XXXX * 15 Barrels of Oil per person)

12. The United States has between 20 and 30 billion barrels of proved oil reserves.

This information is available at

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2000/SohailAhmed.shtml

or http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html

The questions for the students to answer is if the US could only depend on its own oil reserves when would be run out of oil? We will assume the US has 25 billion barrels of proved oil reserves as of 2004 for our analysis.

Year	US Population in Thousands	Oil reserves Remaining (thousands of barrels)
2004		25,000,000.00
2005	290386.3764	20,644,204.35
2006	293151.738	16,246,928.28
2007	295930.4617	11,807,971.36
2008	298722.5475	7,327,133.15
2009	301527.9955	2,804,213.21
2010	304346.8055	-1,760,988.87
2011	307178.9777	-6,368,673.53
2012	310024.5119	-11,019,041.21
2013	312883.4083	-15,712,292.34
2014	315755.6668	-20,448,627.34
2015	318641.2874	-25,228,246.65
2016	321540.2701	-30,051,350.70
2017	324452.6149	-34,918,139.92
2018	327378.3218	-39,828,814.75
2019	330317.3909	-44,783,575.61
2020	333269.822	-49,782,622.94

If the average oil consumption rate for the next 15 years stays at roughly 5 billion barrels per year and if the US has only 30 billion barrels of oil reserves we would run out of oil in 2010 if we did not import oil from other countries.

Expanded Questions

How much oil does the US import per year?

Where does the imported oil for the US come from?

See http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/crudebycountry.htm

What are the disadvantages of being dependent on foreign oil?

What alternatives exist to reduce our oil dependence?